Economy Now and Tommorow

What is the forecast for 2008 economy? What will make the economy tick in U.S, Europe,Asia and Latin America? Many pundits are foretelling what might/might not happen in next 12 months or so.

Once the feel goodi-ness of welcoming 2008 is over, the news will start pouring in. These are the predictions of very naivete person.

The real estate market will continue to fall in US mostly due to job losses and heavy restrictions on lending. If there is a gradual fall for the first 3 months, then this spells recession until the war is over and those funds can be moved into US domestic market. So this spells a certain doom for the dollar which means gold and oil prices will continue to rise until the war reaches a point where some conclusions can be drawn.

What will happen in Europe? I see Russia regaining its economic power and increase its influence. Unfortunately, I don't have the figures of Russian trade with Europe ( I guess its mainly energy resources and food). Due to the squabbling that is ever omni-present in European countries regarding economy, they also will have some negative effect though I should say weather permitting, tourism will guide them through this year.

Middle East has no economy, so there is nothing to talk of. (If you know what I mean).

Now to Asia and South Asia. Bulk of US and Europe's manufacturing is being done in this place. Essential manufacturing will continue, although there should be a drop in the production levels of some of the cheesy fat goods (non essential;middle class luxury items).  The stock markets should probably keep at their steady levels, any changes offset by increase in domestic market demand and currency fluctuations. That would mean thin returns instead of negative return.

Unless there are major upheavals in this region (like China -Taiwan tensions or Indo-Pak tensions) the region should relatively return good returns on investment.

I would bet my money on real estate in China and manufacturing sector in India.

Now what should to happen to Latin America? Venezuela, Argentina and most of all Brazil are attractive destinations for investment. Brazil's amazon cutting would probably decrease because of lack of market in US but on the other hand the oil futures can begin to soar up in this country. With what 85% ethanol in their car tanks and new reserves of oil found, they are going to sit on their precious baskets and bask.

Venezuela is a taboo country for US investment and Argentina still needs to stand on its heels.It is probably the only country which had crisis when there were all kinds of fireworks everywhere (although of different kind in Iraq and Afghanistan).

If somebody is thinking of Africa, please call me after 2015.

Aussies and Kiwis just dont want to wet their fingers anywhere, so we shall leave them.

and the foremost enemy for Pakistan is a fool who allowed Benazir Bhutto's body to be buried without any postmortem. That is Pervez Musharraf. 

This year

Hiya,

This year has been like nothing any other. Time is again "fleeting". The job has become more than comfortable; came to knew some good people and said good-byes to some good people.

How does 2008 beckon you? What should I look forward to? Too many thoughts flying through the mind and still no clear answers. I have long given up making resolutions , still subconscious sets some goals by itself. The moment you think of not setting a goal, the mind rebels against and just forms a decision or goal; which again forgets 10 min later.

If I just try to remember what happened in the last year, the work and tasks you have done just fly by...3 months of flying to Chicago on work(mostly after summer); countless visits to LasVegas and GrandCanyon; India visit, colleagues moving onto new jobs, back to job again.

My car mileage still to reach 7000 after 14 months in operation,(WTF happened there???). Ah..ofcourse my visit to Nogales,Mexico for Visa. It feels good to cross borders of this country. I think most of the people feel that way, that is why tourism is such a sucker here.

I have grown a liking to fantasy novels during the last year. Almost a sucker to Harry Potter Series, I also completed Alison Croggon's Pellinor Series, Lord of the Rings Trilogy and His Dark Materials by Philip Pullman.

What attracted me to these fantasy novels, is their quality in description of nature. Some times I miss this narration just by reading fleetingly through the chapters in the books. Arguably Harry Potter series is the least descriptive novel, but obviously much more popular due to the mostly no-nonsense story that might be/should be told in the novels.

Well, my fav BB team Suns again reached western conference finals. Their's still is most exciting game in NBA. I wish they would they would win championship this year.

With 2006 and 2007 being heady years, 2008 is already promising to be balanced year. Sub-prime mortgage crisis is looming over(precipitation is still unclear) and pay cuts seems to be along the way. Not good..not at all good with what all happened to the dollar too.

Well, I hope to remove my thoughts more frequently and pensieve them here. It's definitely feels refreshing to look back on some of the thoughts.

Well Bring it on 2008....!!!